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«FINAL REPORT APRIL 2009 WITH ISMERI EUROPA DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities This publication is commissioned under the European ...»

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COMPREHENSIVE SECTORAL ANALYSIS OF EMERGING COMPETENCES

EUROPEAN UNION

AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE

LOT 6: ELECTROMECHANICAL ENGINEERING

FINAL REPORT

APRIL 2009

WITH

ISMERI EUROPA

DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities This publication is commissioned under the European Community Programme for Employment and Social Solidarity - PROGRESS (2007-2013).

This programme is managed by the Directorate-General for Employment, social affairs and equal opportunities of the European Commission. It was established to financially support the implementation of the objectives of the European Union in the employment and social affairs area, as set out in the Social Agenda, and thereby contribute to the achievement of the Lisbon Strategy goals in these fields.

The seven-year Programme targets all stakeholders who can help shape the development of appropriate and effective employment and social legislation and policies, across the EU-27, EFTA-EEA and EU candidate and pre-candidate countries.

PROGRESS mission is to strengthen the EU contribution in support of Member States'

commitment. PROGRESS will be instrumental in:

- providing analysis and policy advice on PROGRESS policy areas;

- monitoring and reporting on the implementation of EU legislation and policies in PROGRESS policy areas;

- promoting policy transfer, learning and support among Member States on EU objectives and priorities; and

- relaying the views of the stakeholders and society at large For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/progress/index_en.html The information contained in this publication does not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission.

Lot 6: Electro-mechanical engineering Alphametrics & Ismeri Europa Final Report

TABLE OF CONTENTS

GENERAL INTRODUCTION

PART 1 – THE ECONOMIC AND STATISTICAL MAPPING OF THE SECTORS

PART 2 – DRIVERS OF CHANGE

PART 3 – EMERGING SKILLS AND COMPETENCES

PART 4 – SCENARIOS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

PART 5 – IMPLICATIONS FOR EMPLOYMENT, SKILLS AND COMPETENCES

PART 6 – STRATEGIC CHOICES TO MEET COMPETENCE AND SKILLS NEEDS

PART 7 – MAIN OUTCOMES AND RECOMMENDATIONS

ANNEX 1: EU LEVEL CO-OPERATION CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF

EUROPEAN QUALIFICATIONS AND COMPETENCES

ANNEX 2: PARTICIPANTS AT EXPERT WORKSHOP 3-4 NOVEMBER, 2008

–  –  –

General introduction The objective of the study is to identify the likely emergent jobs and related competences (skills needs) in two related, but separate and in some senses significantly different,

sectors, namely:

• Manufacture of machinery and equipment (NACE 29) – henceforth referred to as the Machinery and equipment sector

• Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus (NACE 31) – henceforth referred to as the Electrical machinery and apparatus sector The term Electro-mechanical Engineering sector will be used when referring to the two sectors together.

The study is based on a specific methodology1. It contains:

• An economic and statistical mapping of the sectors concerned, with a focus on the structure and trends in output and employment, the regional distribution of output and employment, other relevant factors such as the size of enterprises, the age, gender, skills and occupational breakdown of the workforce, as well as the competitiveness of the sectors internationally (steps 3 of the prescribed methodology);

• An analysis of the main drivers of change so far as the sectors are concerned and their implications for employment and competence, with a particular focus on the main skill needs and skill gaps that can be identified (steps 4 and 5 of the prescribed methodology);

• A presentation of plausible scenarios concerning the future development of these industries in the period up to 2020, focusing on the implications for employment and competences (steps 6 and 7 of the prescribed methodology);

• The main strategic choices to meet these skill needs (step 8), including the implications for education and training provisions (step 9);

• Recommendations with respect to the above (step 10).

See Innovation, Skills and Jobs Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences and economic activities in the EU 2 Lot 6: Electro-mechanical engineering Alphametrics & Ismeri Europa Final Report Part 1 – The economic and statistical mapping of the sectors Introduction The electro-mechanical engineering sector covers a wide range of industries, grouped within two distinct, though somewhat related, NACE 2-digit sectors – Manufacture of machinery and equipment (NACE 29) and Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus (NACE 31). These are both ‘catch-all’ sectors covering the production of engineering products and closely related activities which are not covered elsewhere in the classification system. Moreover, each of these two sectors incorporates sub-sectors producing machinery and equipment for very different purposes.





In the Machinery and equipment (NACE 29) sector, these range from the manufacture of engines (other than those used in vehicles or aircraft), pumps and turbines and machinery for specialised and more general purposes to the production of weapons and ammunition and domestic appliances, both electrical (somewhat anomalously) and non-electrical.

In respect of the Electrical machinery and apparatus (NACE 31) sector, they range from the manufacture of electric motors, generators and transformers and equipment for the distribution of electricity to wire and cables, lighting and electrical equipment for engines and vehicles.

These various sub-sectors are characterised by major differences in manufacturing processes, in the applicability of new technology, and in the scope for realising increasing returns in production. They are, accordingly, characterised by similarly large differences in the structure of production, and in the relative importance of firms of different size, as well as by the activities performed in the course of the production process. Nevertheless, there is some similarity in the jobs carried out and, therefore, in the skills and competencies which are needed.

At the same time, there is also some similarity in the nature of the sub-sectors or, more specifically, of the products they produce. A common characteristic is that most subsectors provide machinery and equipment for other producers rather than for final consumers, and hence their economic fortunes tend to be affected by investment decisions of their customers rather than by final consumption, although those investment decisions will obviously be influenced by the general state of the economy and the confidence of consumers. One important consequence is that demand for the products of the two sectors generally fluctuates more than GDP in the economy as a whole, recognising that investment goods industries are generally hit first during any actual, or foreseen, downturn in economic activity.

The relationship between changes in the rate of economic growth and changes in the rate of investment is not always close in the short-run, however. Producers may anticipate future growth in demand by expanding their productive capacity in advance of it occurring, or they may delay until the demand actually materialises. Moreover, the rate at which producers replace plant and equipment or update machinery will also be influenced by competitive pressures, from inside or outside the EU.

Developments in the two main divisions cannot be assessed without considering developments in the industries they supply and, consequently, the factors, or drivers, which underlie their developments. These industries, moreover, in many countries – though many fewer than a few years ago – include those which are at least partly, and in some cases Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences and economic activities in the EU 3 Lot 6: Electro-mechanical engineering Alphametrics & Ismeri Europa Final Report mostly, publicly owned and operated and which, accordingly, may be affected in their investment decisions by the policy of the national government in question and the state of public finances rather than by market growth whether actual or prospective. This is particularly the case as regards the electrical machinery and apparatus division in which the manufacture of equipment for the distribution of electricity accounts for a significant share of production, though it is also the case in the machinery and equipment sector, which produces railway engines and steam and gas turbines.

Given the diversity of the activities and products covered by the two sectors, it is inevitable that parts of the analysis focus on the most important sub-sectors in terms of value-added and, more especially, employment. Nevertheless, every effort is made to adopt an overall perspective wherever feasible and relevant. This applies, in particular, to the relative importance of the two sectors for jobs in different parts of the EU, and with respect to the skills and competencies required.

Outline of analysis The analysis begins by examining the size of the two sectors in terms of their contribution to value-added and employment in EU Member States and the relative importance of the sub-sectors. It also considers the way that these have changed over time, and more specifically, over the last 10 years.

The second section consider the structure of the two sectors in terms of the division of employment between firms of different size, which reflects the production characteristics of the different activities covered.

It also examines the regional location of the two sectors across the EU, which is linked to the production characteristics, and the extent to which production and employment is concentrated in particular places, which are, therefore, potentially vulnerable to any adverse developments in the sectors which affect jobs. These can stem not only from a downturn in the industry or a loss of competitiveness and a consequent reduction in market shares but also potentially from productivity growth resulting from the introduction of new technology and the spread of more automated methods of production.

In the latter case, however, the wider effects of such job losses on local employment are unlikely to be so severe insofar as the output of the sector is maintained and the companies supplying the plants concerned are not affected. Indeed, if gains in productivity lead to a growth in sales, the supplying companies could even experience an expansion of output and employment so perhaps compensating for the job losses in the sectors concerned.

The third section examines the trade performance of EU producers in the two sectors and, in particular, their relative position in world markets and the extent to which they have lost – or gained – export market share to producers in other countries over recent years. This is relevant to their future prospects, not only for exporting but also for being able to withstand competition from imports in the domestic market.

Output and employment in the electro-mechanical engineering sector The two broad sectors which are the subject of the study differ in terms of size and their contribution to output, or value-added, and employment, as do the sub-sectors which make them up. In the EU as a whole, the machinery and equipment industry – NACE division 29 – is just over twice the size of the electrical equipment and apparatus industry – NACE 31 – in terms of both value-added and employment.

Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences and economic activities in the EU 4 Lot 6: Electro-mechanical engineering Alphametrics & Ismeri Europa Final Report According to the latest data (for 2005), the former, therefore, is responsible for just under 2% of the overall output of the EU economy and for a slightly smaller share of total employment, while the latter accounts for just under 1% of output and again a slightly smaller proportion of total jobs in the economy. These figures, however, vary markedly between countries.



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