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«TABLE OF CONTENTS Financial Plan Overview List of Proposed Modifications Summary of Recommended Changes by Agency PUBLIC PROTECTION & GENERAL ...»

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2016-17

Assembly Budget Proposal

INTRODUCTION

Section 54 of the Legislative Law requires, among other things, a “comprehensive, cumulative

report” to be made available to Members of the Assembly prior to action on budget bills

advanced by the Governor. The following “Summary of the Assembly Recommended Changes

to the Executive Budget” is prepared by Ways and Means Committee staff and is intended to

provide a concise presentation of all additions, deletions, re-estimates and policy changes that are provided in the Assembly proposal, embodied in Assembly Resolution E. 1047. The budget proposal of the Assembly Majority addresses each appropriation, as well as programmatic language that was first advanced in the Executive Budget.

OVERVIEW OF ASSEMBLY BUDGET PROPOSAL

State Fiscal Year 2016-17

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Financial Plan Overview

List of Proposed Modifications

Summary of Recommended Changes by Agency PUBLIC PROTECTION & GENERAL GOVERNMENT

EDUCATION, LABOR & FAMILY ASSISTANCE

HEALTH & MENTAL HYGIENE

TRANSPORTATION, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT & ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION..... 53-1 LEGISLATURE AND JUDICIARY

DEBT SERVICE

Financial Plan Overview Financial Plan All Funds The All Funds Budget is the broadest measure of spending; accounting for unrestricted and restricted state funds as well as funds received from the federal government.

The Assembly proposes an All Funds Budget of $156.8 billion for State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2016-17, which is $2.1 billion higher than the Executive proposal. The SFY 2016-17 Assembly All Funds Budget is $4.6 billion over the projected spending level for SFY 2015-16.

Table 1 NYS Assembly Disbursements - Difference from Executive ($ in Millions) SFY 2015-16 SFY 2016-17 SFY 2016-17 Difference Ex

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* Includes restoration of cost shifts to the City of New York ($573 million), school aid ($838 million) and child care ($75 million).

Notably, All Funds spending includes extraordinary federal aid of $1.1 billion for Superstorm Sandy relief, $6.8 billion for the Affordable Care Act and 1.3 billion for capital spending from monetary settlement with financial institutions. Absent these funds, year over year disbursement growth would be 2.7 percent.

The Assembly projects receipts on an All Governmental Funds basis of $152.9 billion, which represents a decrease of $837 million or 0.5 percent below SFY 2015-16 estimates. The All Funds receipts assume a $2.37 billion decrease in Miscellaneous Receipts due to the $4.9 billion in settlements received in SFY 2015-16.

State Funds

State Funds spending is comprised of disbursements from the General Fund, Debt Service Funds, Capital Projects Funds and Other State Funds. State Funds spending under the Assembly proposal is projected to total $107.4 billion in SFY 2016-17, representing an increase of $5.2 billion or 5.2 percent over SFY 2015-16. The Assembly’s State Funds spending estimate for SFY 2015-16 is $2.1 billion above the Executive’s estimate.

The Assembly projects State Funds receipts in SFY 2016-17 will total $101.6 billion, an increase of $353 million or 0.3 percent from SFY 2015-16.

State Operating Funds The State Operating budget includes all State spending from the General Fund, State Special Revenue Funds, and Debt Service Fund and excludes Capital Projects Funds and Federal spending. The Assembly proposal assumes State Operating Funds spending of $97.8 billion, an increase of $3.5 billion or 3.7 percent over SFY 2015-16. This growth is primarily attributable to an increase in General Support for Public Schools and Child Care as well as a denial of nearly $1 billion in cost shifts to New York City. Excluding these disbursements, the State Operating Fund grows by 2.15 percent. In SFY 2016-17, State Operating Fund receipts are estimated to total $94.97 billion, a $363 million or 0.4 percent decrease from SFY 2015-16.

General Fund

The General Fund is the primary operating fund of the State, and accounts for all unrestricted tax revenue and other receipts not dedicated to a specific fund, program, or activity. The General Fund receives monies from personal income taxes, sales and user taxes, business taxes, other taxes, miscellaneous receipts, and transfers from other funds.

The Assembly proposal includes General Fund spending of $71.2 billion in SFY 2016-17, a decrease of $1.4 billion or 1.9 percent from SFY 2015-16. This decrease is primarily due to the transfer of $4.55 million in monetary settlement funds into the Dedicated Infrastructure Investment Fund in SFY 2015-16. Proposed spending is $568 million higher than the Executive proposal. In SFY 2016-17, General Fund receipts are estimated to total $68.8 billion, a $1.5 billion or 2.1 percent decrease from SFY 2015-16. Assembly receipts are projected at $28 million above the SFY 2016-17 Executive forecast.

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Assembly Action on Executive Budget The Assembly would spend a net $2.1 billion more than the Executive on a State Funds basis, a

2.1 percent increase in total state spending over the Executive Budget.

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As part of the revenue consensus process, the Assembly agreed to increase the revenue forecast by $225 million. The Assembly also estimates a $10 million reduction in Federal Funds due to rejection of certain Medicaid programs that receive Federal support. The proposal also includes a $28 million reduction in tax revenue attributed to the Assembly proposals for tax exemptions for school bus sales and feminine hygiene products, as well as a change to PIT filing for QEZE business income.

Settlement Funds

Since the SFY 2016-17 Executive proposed budget, the State has received an additional $215 million in monetary settlement from financial institutions: $35 million from Barclays;

$30 million from Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC; and $150 million from Morgan Stanley. This brings the total monetary settlement received in SFY 2014-15, SFY 2015-16 and SFY 2016-17 to a total $8.54 billion. Of this amount, $5.4 billion was budgeted in SFY 2015-16 and $627 million has been set aside for financial plan obligations.

The SFY 2016-17 Executive budget proposes the allocation of $2.3 billion of settlement funds including $1.84 billion in capital spending through the Dedicated Infrastructure Investment Fund (DIIF), and a $120 million transfer to the Environmental Protection Fund (EPF), in addition to a reserve of $340 million to fund a three year toll credit for regular users of the Thruway.

The Assembly proposal decreases the Thruway Stabilization Plan by $390 million and the Upstate Revitalization Initiatives by $100 million; rejects the Municipal Consolidation Competition and Economic Development projects; increases the Empire State Poverty Reduction Initiative by $37.5 million; adds $55 million for Aviation Purposes, $255 million for Non-MTA Transit purposes, $100 million for Rail Projects, $200 million for the Second Avenue Subway; and modifies the Thruway Toll Credit to include only farmers.

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Reserves The Assembly Budget projects $2.6 billion in reserves at the end of SFY 2016-17, representing a $535 million decrease from the Executive proposal. The Assembly reduces the amount reserved for Debt Management by $200 million and reserves the amount for the Assembly’s minimum wage initiative. Additionally, the Assembly modification of the Thruway Toll credit reduces the reserved amount to $15 million, with a portion of the savings allocated to the SUNY/CUNY Tuition Freeze. The $215 million in settlements received over the Executive’s January budget proposal supports General Fund relief.

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Revenue Pursuant to the provisions of Chapter 309 of the Laws of 1996, the Executive and the

Legislature reached consensus and provided the following update:

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This report contains the results of the consensus economic and revenue forecasting process conducted by the Executive and the Legislature in advance of the enactment of the State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2016-17 Budget, pursuant to the provisions of Chapter 309 of the Laws of 1996.

The Consensus Forecasting Conference was held on February 25, 2016. Based on the testimony of experts at the Conference, the outlooks for both the economy and revenue have weakened and uncertainty has increased, with downside risks appearing to dominate upside potential.

Economic Forecast Review

The economic forecasts contained in the Executive Budget and Legislative reports portray continuing but weak economic growth. All parties agree that employment gains will slow while the uncertain impact of continued lower energy prices could result in slower economic growth in 2016 than in the prior year. The consensus forecast for real U.S. GDP growth for 2016 is 2.1 percent, following growth of 2.4 percent for 2015.

All parties expect the national labor market to continue to grow going forward though at a slower pace as the economy approaches full employment. The consensus forecast for 2016 employment growth is 1.8 percent, after 2.1 percent growth in 2015. Easing job growth in 2016 is projected to be accompanied by slower income growth as well. The consensus forecasts for wage and total personal income growth for 2016 are 4.6 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, following growth of 4.8 percent and 4.5 percent in 2015. Consensus growth in U.S. corporate profits, including the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments, is expected to improve moderately from a decline in 2015 to slow growth in 2016. Consensus growth in the Consumer Price Index for 2016 of 1.0 percent represents the expected bottoming out of low energy prices, following an inflation rate of 0.1 percent for 2015. All parties expect the Federal Reserve to continue to raise its short-term interest rate target during 2016, although there is a diversity of opinion as to the exact timing of and number of additional moves.

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The parties agree that while the New York State labor market will remain healthy, growth will slow going forward, with consensus forecast growth of 1.4 percent for FY 2017, following estimated growth of 1.7 percent for FY 2016. The consensus forecast for FY 2017 wage growth is 4.3 percent, representing a slight acceleration from the FY 2016 consensus estimate of 4.2 percent. The consensus forecast for FY 2017 personal income growth is

4.4 percent, following estimated growth of 4.2 percent in FY 2016.

–  –  –

All parties agree that there are multiple risks to the economic outlook for the national and State economies, and therefore revenues. Slower growth in the global economy would have an adverse impact on the U.S. economy, and while the euro zone debt crisis has eased, many of the area's underlying problems have not gone away. The strength of the Chinese economy also represents a source of uncertainty. Energy price volatility also remains both a positive and negative risk. Sources of upside risk include stronger than expected labor and housing market growth, as well as stronger growth overseas.

One of the greater risks to both the national and the New York forecasts stems from policy measures that may be taken by the Federal Reserve before the end of this year. A flatter yield curve than the Federal Reserve envisions could hamper the housing recovery, reduce business investment and hiring, and diminish financial sector profits. As the world’s financial capital, New York could be negatively affected were interest rates to rise at a much faster pace than reflected in the consensus forecast. On the other hand, stronger growth in financial activities than expected could present upside potential for the State economy.

Revenue Forecast Review



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